The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% import tax on all European products from June 1, in the absence of unilateral concessions from the EU.
This measure is part of a strategy to reduce the US trade deficit with Europe by €192 billion by 2024.
Despite the opening of negotiations, Washington is demanding tariff reductions from the EU alone, as well as the abolition of digital taxes and the acceptance of US agri-food standards.
Discussions are at a standstill, and prospects for an agreement remain dim with only a few days to go.
Such a tax would hit hard the European automotive, aeronautics, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and agri-food sectors.
The countries most at risk are Germany, France, Italy and Ireland, which account for the majority of Europe's 530 billion euros in exports to the United States.
Manufacturers fear a major trade shock, in a context already strained by inflation, the energy transition and Chinese competition. In response, the European Commission is preparing retaliatory measures on €95 billion worth of American products, including Boeing aircraft and whisky.
A transatlantic trade war would have significant macroeconomic consequences, reducing growth, weakening investment and disrupting supply chains.
The EU is still seeking a negotiated outcome, with proposals on mutual recognition of standards or the easing of sanitary procedures. But it refuses to capitulate to demands deemed unilateral and unbalanced.
June 1st could thus mark a lasting fracture in the trade relationship between the world's two largest economies.
