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Wealth Management

Bonds are back

April began with unprecedented volatility and a halt in the new bond market, but what about the start of May? While the tariff shock is beginning to be absorbed and the direction is still unclear, the primary market has restarted with a bang, allowing us to identify a number of key drivers.

Firstly, Alphabet - Google's parent company - made a comeback after a 5-year absence. The American giant did not repeat the 'sustainable' format, but it did issue colossal amounts. On 1 May, it issued $12.7 billion of bonds with maturities ranging from 2030 to 2065 - the coupon levels are nothing like those of 2020. At the time, the 20-year issue cost Alphabet 1.90%. Five years later, the new 10-year bond costs... 4.50%! The surprise was compounded a few days later when Alphabet issued ... on the European bond market for the first time ever: €6.75bn spread over 5 maturities from 2029 to 2054. Investor appetite was strong, with order books covering up to 6 times supply. Combining the two currencies, Alphabet financed itself at less than 4% for an average maturity of 18 years. This is not an isolated example, as a growing number of US issuers, such as Visa and Johnson & Johnson, are choosing to fund themselves on the European market. With lower yields and robust demand, the European bond market is a prime location for global companies. And beyond the de-dollarisation theme, the figures confirm the attractiveness of the European bond market.

Activity has also picked up in the US, but in different circumstances, with Apple and General Motors, for example, paying the price. Uncertainty over tariffs, announcements of planned production cost increases by the former and the lack of any indication of guidance results by the latter have undoubtedly had an impact. They still found buyers easily, but both companies had to offer high yields relative to their existing debt as well as concession premiums above the market average in 2025. Coverage ratios were comfortable but well below the market average for the year. The fact that both companies' supply chains are largely located outside the US undoubtedly weighed on these somewhat disappointing fundraisings.

Finally, US government debt, which is - for the time being - immune to the 'tariff war' effect, has recovered. The recent 10-year auction benefited from solid demand, which supported the market. These various illustrations point to a tentative return of confidence. However, it will remain fragile as long as tariff uncertainties and their economic consequences persist.

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