The Monetary pivot from major central banks towards a less restrictive monetary policy is approaching. So how do we invest ?
We continue to expect a soft-landing of the US economy in 2024, and a continuation of global disinflation. A pivot by central banks of developed countries is expected before the summer and should support financial markets. This is our bull Fed pivot scenario.
Today we are in the first phase of this scenario. We are in a late-cycle phase and we expect yields to fall further pending central banks’ pivot and the continuation of disinflation. This will benefit rate-sensitive asset classes. This is why we increased the duration of the bond pockets at the very beginning of the year. We switch to longer maturities in investment grade and sovereign positions. In this first phase too, declining yields are easing the downward pressure on equity multiples, which is a support for equity markets.
In the second phase of our scenario, we expect policy rate cuts to support growth, leading to an early-cycle phase. In this phase, we will favor cyclical, value and small and mid-cap stocks. Within bonds, high yield should outperform, as well as emerging debts, supported by a weaker dollar.